North Worsens Tropical Catastrophe

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Sep 9 2025 (IPS) - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen over the last two centuries, with current and accumulated emissions per capita from rich nations greatly exceeding those of the Global South.

Tropical vulnerability

The last six millennia have seen much higher ‘carrying capacities’, soil fertility, population densities, and urbanisation in the tropics than in the temperate zone.

Most of the world’s population lives in tropical and subtropical areas in developing nations, now increasingly threatened by planetary heating.

Different environments, geographies, ecologies and means affect vulnerability to planetary heating. Climate change’s effects vary considerably, especially between tropical and temperate regions.

Extreme weather events – cyclones, hurricanes, or typhoons – are generally much more severe in the tropics, which are also much more vulnerable to planetary heating.

Although they have emitted relatively less GHGs per capita, tropical developing countries must now adapt much more to planetary heating and its consequences.

Many rural livelihoods have become increasingly unviable, forcing ‘climate refugees’ to move away. Increasing numbers in the countryside have little choice but to leave.

Worse, economic and technological changes of recent decades have limited job creation in many developing countries, causing employment to fall further behind labour force growth.

Unequal development has also worsened climate injustice. Adaptation efforts are far more urgent in the tropics as planetary heating has damaged these regions much more.

Technological solutions?

While science may offer solutions, innovation has become increasingly commercialised for profit. Previously, developing countries could negotiate technology transfer agreements, but this option is becoming less available.

Strengthened intellectual property rights (IPRs) limit technology transfer, innovation, and development. The World Trade Organization (WTO) greatly increased the scope of IPRs in 1995 with its new Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) provisions.

Thus, access to technology depends increasingly on ability to pay and getting government permission, slowing climate action in the Global South. Financial constraints doubly handicap the worst off.

Despite rapidly mounting deaths due to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, European governments refused to honour the West’s public health exception (PHE) concession in 2001 to restart WTO ministerial talks after the 1999 Seattle debacle.

Instead of implementing the TRIPS PHE as the pandemic quickly spread, Europeans dragged out negotiations until a poor compromise was reached years after the pandemic had been officially declared and millions had died worldwide.

With the second Trump administration withdrawing again from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cutting research funding, tropical threats will continue to dominate the WHO list of neglected diseases.

Climate finance inadequate

Citing the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), rich nations claimed they could only afford to contribute a hundred billion dollars annually to climate finance for developing countries in line with the sustainable development principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’.

This hundred-billion-dollar promise was made before the 2009 Copenhagen Conference of the Parties (COP) to secure support for a significant new climate agreement after the US Senate rejected the Kyoto Protocol before the end of the 20th century.

Rich nations promised to raise their concessional climate finance contributions from 2020 after recovery from the recession following the GFC. However, official development assistance has declined while military spending pledges have risen sharply.

The rich OECD nations now claim that the hundred-billion-dollar climate finance promise has been met with some new ‘creative accounting’, including Italian government funding support for a commercial gelateria chain abroad!

In recent climate finance talks, Western governments increasingly insist that only mitigation funding should qualify as climate finance, claiming adaptation efforts do not slow planetary heating.

Meanwhile, reparations funds for ‘losses and damages’ remain embarrassingly low. Worse, in recent years, much of the West has abandoned specific promises to slow planetary heating.

Despite being among the greatest GHG emitters per capita, the USA has made the least progress. The two Trump administrations’ aggressive reversals of modest earlier US commitments have further reduced the negligible progress so far.

In late 2021, the Glasgow climate COP pledged to end coal burning for energy. But less than half a year later, the West abandoned this promise to block energy imports from Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

Concessional to commercial finance

Responding to developing countries’ demands for more financial resources on concessional terms to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and address the climate crisis, World Bank president Jim Kim promoted the ‘from billions to trillions’ financing slogan.

The catchphrase was used to urge developing countries to take much more commercial loans as access to concessional finance declined and borrowing terms tightened.

With lower interest rates in the West due to unconventional monetary policies following the 2008 GFC, many developing nations increased borrowing until interest rates were sharply raised from early 2022.

Funds leaving developing countries in great haste precipitated widespread debt distress, especially in many poorer developing countries. Thus, purported market financial solutions compounded rather than mitigated the climate crisis.

Meanwhile, growing geopolitical hostilities, leading to what some consider a new Cold War, are accelerating planetary heating and further threatening tropical ecologies, rural livelihoods, and well-being.

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Available online at: North Worsens Tropical Catastrophe

Inequality Worsens Planetary Heating

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Aug 12 2025 (IPS) - The accumulation of still growing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in an increasingly unequal world is accelerating planetary heating. It is also worsening disparities, especially between the rich and others, both nationally and internationally.

Unequal emissions

In our grossly unequal world, international disparities account for two-thirds of overall income inequalities. National income aggregates and averages can mislead by obscuring significant disparities within countries.

The World Inequality Report argues that GHG emission disparities are mainly due to inequalities within countries. Meanwhile, GHG emissions continue to grow as their accumulation accelerates planetary heating.

Emissions disparities within nations now account for almost two-thirds of worldwide emissions inequality, nearly doubling from slightly over a third in 1990.

The bottom halves of rich country populations are already at – or close to – the 2030 per capita carbon dioxide equivalent emission targets set by their governments. Yet North America’s wealthiest 10% or decile are the world’s biggest GHG emitters.

Their average emissions are 73 times those of the bottom half of the South and Southeast Asian populations! The East Asian rich also emit high GHGs, but much less than in North America.

The bottom halves of their populations emit nearly ten tons per capita yearly in North America, around five tons in

Europe, and about three tons in East Asia.

The much smaller carbon footprints of most of the Global South contrast with the GHG emissions of the top deciles in their own countries and those of the wealthiest 10% in poorer regions.

The top deciles in South and Southeast Asia emit more than double the GHG emissions of Europe’s lower half. Even sub-Saharan Africa’s top decile emits more than Europe’s lower half on average.

Inequality drives emissions

Jayati Ghosh, Shouvik Chakraborty and Debamanyu Das argue that inequality has been driving increases in GHG emissions. While the bottom halves in the US and Europe reduced per capita emissions by 15-20% between 1990 and 2019, the top 1% increased theirs.

The world’s top decile alone accounts for almost half of GHG emissions. As the wealthy become even richer, their adverse environmental impacts increase.

Despite misleading rhetoric, most carbon taxation is not progressive, typically burdening middle- and low-income groups much more than those most responsible, the rich.

Policies to cut GHG emissions must curb excessive consumption by the rich as well as ‘extractivist’ production worldwide to meet their demands.

Profits trump public interest

Meanwhile, transnational corporations and Western governments have refused to honour the public health exception (PHE) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) intellectual property (IP) rights agreement, TRIPS.

The PHE compromise was agreed to in 2001 to resume WTO trade negotiations at its Doha inter-ministerial meeting after the aborted Seattle conference in 1999.

But then, rich nation governments blocked developing countries’ requests for a PHE waiver to urgently produce enough affordable tests, treatments, equipment and vaccines for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hence, it is unlikely significant IP concessions will be forthcoming to boost developing countries’ efforts to mitigate and adapt to effectively address planetary heating.

The sources of global warming are local, while planetary heating is worldwide, albeit uneven. Effective coping policies and measures are costly and generally more burdensome to the poor and middle classes.

Alternative arrangements can enable greater equity and sustainability. However, mobilising more concerted and effective resistance to planetary heating has proved very difficult.

Climate injustice

Historical accumulation of GHG emissions is the leading cause of planetary warming. Developed countries were responsible for almost four-fifths of cumulative GHG emissions from 1850 to 2011.

Meanwhile, their adverse impacts on developing countries in the tropics are worse. The Global South is also less able to cope due to limited policy space and means.

‘Net-zero’ commitments by countries do not acknowledge the huge climate burden imposed by past GHG accumulation, thus undermining prospects for a just transition.

In international negotiations, wealthy economies have evaded historical responsibility for ‘climate debt’ by focusing on contemporary emissions and ignoring their accumulation over the last two centuries.

Ignoring this historical climate debt also serves to legitimise ignoring compensation for those most adversely impacted in low- and lower-middle-income countries, who have already suffered extensive damage and losses.

This pretence is not only unfair, but also counterproductive. It has undermined the international solidarity and cooperation needed to cope with planetary heating.

Breaching threshold

Current rich nations’ projected emissions will use up three-fifths of the remaining global warming threshold for the world’s ‘carbon budget’ until 2050, so as not to exceed the 1.5°C addition to pre-industrial levels!

However, the most optimistic recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario expected the 1.5°C threshold to be crossed by 2040!

But even before US President Trump re-accelerated planetary heating after his re-election, then UN Special Envoy and now Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned this threshold would be breached by the end of this decade!

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Available online at: Inequality Worsens Planetary Heating

Western Climate Hypocrisy Exposed by NATO Energy Policy

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Mar 11 2025 (IPS) - NATO geopolitical strategy has now joined the ‘coalition’ of Western geoeconomic forces accelerating planetary heating, now led again by re-elected US President Donald Trump.

Industrial Revolution

Economic development is typically associated with the spread of industrialisation over the last two centuries. The Industrial Revolution involved greater energy use to increase productive capacities significantly.

Burning biomass and fossil fuels greatly expanded mechanical energy generation. The age of industry in the last two centuries has thus involved more hydrocarbon combustion to increase output.

Uneven development has also transformed population geography. Tropical soils were far more productive, enabling higher population-carrying capacities. Hence, during the Anthropocene over the last six millennia, human settlement was denser around the tropics.

Greater water availability enabled more botanical growth, supporting more fauna that was less subject to seasonal vicissitudes. If not undermined by aridification and desertification, much denser human settlements and populations became more viable in and near the tropics.

Meanwhile, industrialisation has been uneven. It was initially mainly located in the temperate West until after decolonisation following the Second World War (WW2).

However, post-WW2 industrialisation in the Global South was largely denounced as protectionist and inefficient until the East Asian miracles were better understood.

Sustainable development goals

The 1972 Stockholm Environment Summit helped catalyse public awareness of ecological and related vulnerabilities. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit promoted a more comprehensive approach centred on sustainable development.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were drafted in 2001 by a small group appointed by the UN Secretary-General. In sharp contrast, the formulation and greater legitimacy of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) required time-consuming widespread consultations.

Undoubtedly, many SDGs contain apparent contradictions, omissions, and unnecessary inclusions. While participatory processes tend to be messy and slow, genuine cooperation is impossible without inclusive consultation.

After decades, developing countries successfully secured recognition for the need to compensate for losses and damages, i.e., provide climate reparations, yet most prosperous countries have given nothing so far.

While mitigation is undoubtedly crucial for slowing planetary heating, resources for adaptation are urgently needed by all developing countries. Those located in the tropics have been more adversely affected.

Sustainable development should sustain ecology and human progress. Planetary heating should be curbed fairly to ensure those living precariously are not worse off.

Planetary heating

Thus, the neoliberal – and neocolonial – counter-revolution against development economics from the 1980s, with its insistence on trade liberalisation, deprived much of recently independent Africa and others of industry and food security.

The worst consequences of planetary heating are in the tropics, where populations are generally denser but poorer. European settler colonialism in temperate regions exacerbated this, blocking later immigration from the tropics.

Economic growth, higher productivity and living standards have been closely associated with more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the last two centuries. Historical GHG accumulation now exacerbates planetary heating.

The New York Times has identified significant benefits of planetary heating for the US and, by extension, the Global North. Thus, the commitment of the temperate West to urgently address planetary heating remains suspect.

It claimed the melting Arctic ice cap would eventually allow inter-ocean shipping, even during winter, without using the Panama Canal, thus cutting marine transport costs. Planetary warming would also extend temperate zone summers, increasing plant and animal growth.

Sad tropics

Former central banker Mark Carney, then UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, has warned that average planetary temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C (degrees Celsius) threshold over pre-industrial levels in less than a decade.

This threshold was mainly demanded by tropical developing countries but opposed by the Global North, especially temperate European countries, who wanted it higher at 2°C. Planetary heating exacerbates poverty, with most of the world’s poor living in the tropics.

Adaptation to planetary warming is thus very urgent for developing nations. But most concessionary climate finance is earmarked for mitigation, ignoring urgent adaptation needs. Meanwhile, extreme weather events have become more common.

At least ten provinces in Vietnam now have seawater seeping into rice fields, reducing production. As rice is the main staple in Asia, higher prices will reduce its affordability, undermining the region’s food security.

War worsens planetary heating

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) response to the Ukraine invasion has blocked Russian exports of oil and gas, strengthening the US monopoly of European fossil fuel imports.

With higher oil and gas prices, Europe has provided various energy price subsidies to ensure public support for the NATO war against Russia. The UK host secured a commitment to abandon coal at the Glasgow 26th UN climate Conference of Parties at the end of 2021.

As Mrs Thatcher had crushed the militant British coal mineworkers’ trade union in the 1980s, abandoning was easier for UK Conservatives. But the vow was soon abandoned, and coal mining in Europe revived to block cheap Russian oil and gas imports.

Thus, NATO’s energy strategy has exposed European climate hypocrisy, with the West abandoning its coal pledge for geopolitical and geoeconomic advantage. Such considerations have also undermined carbon markets’ ability to mitigate planetary heating.

Last year, the European Parliament voted to give Ukraine 0.25% of their national incomes while official OECD development assistance to the entire Global South has fallen to 0.3%! Burn, tropics, burn!

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• Climate Hypocrisy Ensures Global Warming

Available online here: Western Climate Hypocrisy Exposed by NATO Energy Policy