North Worsens Tropical Catastrophe

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Sep 9 2025 (IPS) - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen over the last two centuries, with current and accumulated emissions per capita from rich nations greatly exceeding those of the Global South.

Tropical vulnerability

The last six millennia have seen much higher ‘carrying capacities’, soil fertility, population densities, and urbanisation in the tropics than in the temperate zone.

Most of the world’s population lives in tropical and subtropical areas in developing nations, now increasingly threatened by planetary heating.

Different environments, geographies, ecologies and means affect vulnerability to planetary heating. Climate change’s effects vary considerably, especially between tropical and temperate regions.

Extreme weather events – cyclones, hurricanes, or typhoons – are generally much more severe in the tropics, which are also much more vulnerable to planetary heating.

Although they have emitted relatively less GHGs per capita, tropical developing countries must now adapt much more to planetary heating and its consequences.

Many rural livelihoods have become increasingly unviable, forcing ‘climate refugees’ to move away. Increasing numbers in the countryside have little choice but to leave.

Worse, economic and technological changes of recent decades have limited job creation in many developing countries, causing employment to fall further behind labour force growth.

Unequal development has also worsened climate injustice. Adaptation efforts are far more urgent in the tropics as planetary heating has damaged these regions much more.

Technological solutions?

While science may offer solutions, innovation has become increasingly commercialised for profit. Previously, developing countries could negotiate technology transfer agreements, but this option is becoming less available.

Strengthened intellectual property rights (IPRs) limit technology transfer, innovation, and development. The World Trade Organization (WTO) greatly increased the scope of IPRs in 1995 with its new Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) provisions.

Thus, access to technology depends increasingly on ability to pay and getting government permission, slowing climate action in the Global South. Financial constraints doubly handicap the worst off.

Despite rapidly mounting deaths due to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, European governments refused to honour the West’s public health exception (PHE) concession in 2001 to restart WTO ministerial talks after the 1999 Seattle debacle.

Instead of implementing the TRIPS PHE as the pandemic quickly spread, Europeans dragged out negotiations until a poor compromise was reached years after the pandemic had been officially declared and millions had died worldwide.

With the second Trump administration withdrawing again from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cutting research funding, tropical threats will continue to dominate the WHO list of neglected diseases.

Climate finance inadequate

Citing the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), rich nations claimed they could only afford to contribute a hundred billion dollars annually to climate finance for developing countries in line with the sustainable development principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’.

This hundred-billion-dollar promise was made before the 2009 Copenhagen Conference of the Parties (COP) to secure support for a significant new climate agreement after the US Senate rejected the Kyoto Protocol before the end of the 20th century.

Rich nations promised to raise their concessional climate finance contributions from 2020 after recovery from the recession following the GFC. However, official development assistance has declined while military spending pledges have risen sharply.

The rich OECD nations now claim that the hundred-billion-dollar climate finance promise has been met with some new ‘creative accounting’, including Italian government funding support for a commercial gelateria chain abroad!

In recent climate finance talks, Western governments increasingly insist that only mitigation funding should qualify as climate finance, claiming adaptation efforts do not slow planetary heating.

Meanwhile, reparations funds for ‘losses and damages’ remain embarrassingly low. Worse, in recent years, much of the West has abandoned specific promises to slow planetary heating.

Despite being among the greatest GHG emitters per capita, the USA has made the least progress. The two Trump administrations’ aggressive reversals of modest earlier US commitments have further reduced the negligible progress so far.

In late 2021, the Glasgow climate COP pledged to end coal burning for energy. But less than half a year later, the West abandoned this promise to block energy imports from Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

Concessional to commercial finance

Responding to developing countries’ demands for more financial resources on concessional terms to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and address the climate crisis, World Bank president Jim Kim promoted the ‘from billions to trillions’ financing slogan.

The catchphrase was used to urge developing countries to take much more commercial loans as access to concessional finance declined and borrowing terms tightened.

With lower interest rates in the West due to unconventional monetary policies following the 2008 GFC, many developing nations increased borrowing until interest rates were sharply raised from early 2022.

Funds leaving developing countries in great haste precipitated widespread debt distress, especially in many poorer developing countries. Thus, purported market financial solutions compounded rather than mitigated the climate crisis.

Meanwhile, growing geopolitical hostilities, leading to what some consider a new Cold War, are accelerating planetary heating and further threatening tropical ecologies, rural livelihoods, and well-being.

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Available online at: North Worsens Tropical Catastrophe

Western Climate Hypocrisy Exposed by NATO Energy Policy

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Mar 11 2025 (IPS) - NATO geopolitical strategy has now joined the ‘coalition’ of Western geoeconomic forces accelerating planetary heating, now led again by re-elected US President Donald Trump.

Industrial Revolution

Economic development is typically associated with the spread of industrialisation over the last two centuries. The Industrial Revolution involved greater energy use to increase productive capacities significantly.

Burning biomass and fossil fuels greatly expanded mechanical energy generation. The age of industry in the last two centuries has thus involved more hydrocarbon combustion to increase output.

Uneven development has also transformed population geography. Tropical soils were far more productive, enabling higher population-carrying capacities. Hence, during the Anthropocene over the last six millennia, human settlement was denser around the tropics.

Greater water availability enabled more botanical growth, supporting more fauna that was less subject to seasonal vicissitudes. If not undermined by aridification and desertification, much denser human settlements and populations became more viable in and near the tropics.

Meanwhile, industrialisation has been uneven. It was initially mainly located in the temperate West until after decolonisation following the Second World War (WW2).

However, post-WW2 industrialisation in the Global South was largely denounced as protectionist and inefficient until the East Asian miracles were better understood.

Sustainable development goals

The 1972 Stockholm Environment Summit helped catalyse public awareness of ecological and related vulnerabilities. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit promoted a more comprehensive approach centred on sustainable development.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were drafted in 2001 by a small group appointed by the UN Secretary-General. In sharp contrast, the formulation and greater legitimacy of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) required time-consuming widespread consultations.

Undoubtedly, many SDGs contain apparent contradictions, omissions, and unnecessary inclusions. While participatory processes tend to be messy and slow, genuine cooperation is impossible without inclusive consultation.

After decades, developing countries successfully secured recognition for the need to compensate for losses and damages, i.e., provide climate reparations, yet most prosperous countries have given nothing so far.

While mitigation is undoubtedly crucial for slowing planetary heating, resources for adaptation are urgently needed by all developing countries. Those located in the tropics have been more adversely affected.

Sustainable development should sustain ecology and human progress. Planetary heating should be curbed fairly to ensure those living precariously are not worse off.

Planetary heating

Thus, the neoliberal – and neocolonial – counter-revolution against development economics from the 1980s, with its insistence on trade liberalisation, deprived much of recently independent Africa and others of industry and food security.

The worst consequences of planetary heating are in the tropics, where populations are generally denser but poorer. European settler colonialism in temperate regions exacerbated this, blocking later immigration from the tropics.

Economic growth, higher productivity and living standards have been closely associated with more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the last two centuries. Historical GHG accumulation now exacerbates planetary heating.

The New York Times has identified significant benefits of planetary heating for the US and, by extension, the Global North. Thus, the commitment of the temperate West to urgently address planetary heating remains suspect.

It claimed the melting Arctic ice cap would eventually allow inter-ocean shipping, even during winter, without using the Panama Canal, thus cutting marine transport costs. Planetary warming would also extend temperate zone summers, increasing plant and animal growth.

Sad tropics

Former central banker Mark Carney, then UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, has warned that average planetary temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C (degrees Celsius) threshold over pre-industrial levels in less than a decade.

This threshold was mainly demanded by tropical developing countries but opposed by the Global North, especially temperate European countries, who wanted it higher at 2°C. Planetary heating exacerbates poverty, with most of the world’s poor living in the tropics.

Adaptation to planetary warming is thus very urgent for developing nations. But most concessionary climate finance is earmarked for mitigation, ignoring urgent adaptation needs. Meanwhile, extreme weather events have become more common.

At least ten provinces in Vietnam now have seawater seeping into rice fields, reducing production. As rice is the main staple in Asia, higher prices will reduce its affordability, undermining the region’s food security.

War worsens planetary heating

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) response to the Ukraine invasion has blocked Russian exports of oil and gas, strengthening the US monopoly of European fossil fuel imports.

With higher oil and gas prices, Europe has provided various energy price subsidies to ensure public support for the NATO war against Russia. The UK host secured a commitment to abandon coal at the Glasgow 26th UN climate Conference of Parties at the end of 2021.

As Mrs Thatcher had crushed the militant British coal mineworkers’ trade union in the 1980s, abandoning was easier for UK Conservatives. But the vow was soon abandoned, and coal mining in Europe revived to block cheap Russian oil and gas imports.

Thus, NATO’s energy strategy has exposed European climate hypocrisy, with the West abandoning its coal pledge for geopolitical and geoeconomic advantage. Such considerations have also undermined carbon markets’ ability to mitigate planetary heating.

Last year, the European Parliament voted to give Ukraine 0.25% of their national incomes while official OECD development assistance to the entire Global South has fallen to 0.3%! Burn, tropics, burn!

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• Climate Hypocrisy Ensures Global Warming

Available online here: Western Climate Hypocrisy Exposed by NATO Energy Policy

America First Deepens World Stagnation

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Feb 25 2025 (IPS) - Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) appeal captured US mass discontent against globalisation. In recent decades, variations of America First have reflected growing ethnonationalism in the world’s presumptive hegemon.

Deglobalisation?

Trade liberalisation probably peaked at the end of the 20th century with the creation of the multilateral World Trade Organization (WTO), which the West kept outside the UN system.

With deindustrialisation in the North blamed on globalisation, their governments gradually abandoned trade liberalisation, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis.

Free trade mahaguru Jagdish Bhagwati has long complained of the weak commitment to multilateral trade liberalisation. Most recent supposed free trade agreements (FTAs) have been plurilateral or bilateral, undermining multilateralism while promoting non-trade measures.

The new geoeconomics and geopolitics have undermined the rules and norms supporting multilateralism. This has undermined confidence in the rules of the game, encouraging individualistic opportunism and subverting collective action.

Policymaking has become more problematic as it can no longer count on agreed-shared rules and norms, undermining sustained international cooperation. Biased and often inappropriate economic policies and institutions have only made things worse.

Successive Washington administrations’ unilateral changes in policies, rules and conventions have also undermined confidence in US-dominated international economic arrangements, including the Bretton Woods institutions.

Deliberate contraction

Although recent inflation has been mainly due to supply-side disruptions, Western central banks have imposed contractionary demand-side macroeconomic policies by raising interest rates and pursuing fiscal austerity.

US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes from early 2022 have been unnecessary and inappropriate. Squeezing consumption and investment demand with higher interest rates cannot and does not address supply-side disruptions and contractions.

After earlier ‘quantitative easing’ encouraged much more commercial borrowing, higher Western central bank interest rates were contractionary and regressive. Hence, much of world economic stagnation now is due to Western policies.

Developing countries have long known that international economic institutions and arrangements are biased against them. Believing they have no opportunity for wide-ranging reform, most authorities are resigned to only using available macroeconomic policy space.

Nevertheless, national authorities have become more willing to undertake previously unacceptable measures. For example, several conservative central banks deployed ‘monetary financing’ of government spending to cope with the pandemic, lending directly to government treasuries without market intermediation.

More recently, central banks in Japan, China, and some Southeast Asian countries refused to raise interest rates in concert with the West. Instead, they sought and found new policy space, helping to mitigate contractionary international economic pressures.

Nonetheless, many economists piously urged central banks worldwide to raise interest rates until mid-2024. Meanwhile, policy pressures for fiscal austerity continue, worsening conditions for billions.

Neoliberal?

To secure support for neoliberal reforms from the late 20th century, the Global North promised developing countries greater market access and export opportunities.

However, trade liberalisation has slowly reversed since the World Trade Organization (WTO) creation in 1995. Policy reversals have become more blatant since the 2008 global financial crisis with geopolitically driven sanctions and weaponisation of trade.

But ‘neoliberal’ globalisation was a misnomer, as there was little liberal about it beyond selective trade liberalisation.

Instead, FTAs have mainly strengthened and extended property and contract rights, i.e., selectively interpreting and enforcing international law.

Trade liberalisation undermined earlier selective protectionism, which promoted food security and industrialisation in developing countries. Tariffs have also been crucial revenue sources, especially for the poorest countries.

Intellectual property

Strengthening the rule of law has rarely fostered liberal markets. Even 19th-century economic liberals recognise the inevitable wealth concentration due to selective and partial neoliberalism.

Property rights invariably strengthen monopoly privileges under various pretexts. Global North governments now believe control of technology is key to world dominance. The WTO’s trade-related intellectual property rights (TRIPS) have greatly strengthened IP enforcement.

With IP more lucrative, corporations have less incentive to share or transfer technology. With TRIPS enforced from 1995, technology transfer to developing countries has declined, further undermining development prospects.

The 2001 public health exception to TRIPS could not overcome IP obstacles to ensure affordable COVID-19 tests, protective equipment, vaccines and therapies during the COVID-19 pandemic, even triggering criticisms of ‘vaccine apartheid’.

Weaponising economics

The West has increasingly deployed economic sanctions, which are illegal without UN Security Council mandates. Meanwhile, access to trade, investment, finance and technology has become increasingly weaponised.

Foreign direct investment was supposed to sustain growth in developing countries. Intensifying Obama-initiated efforts to undermine China, then-President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo urged ‘reshoring’, i.e., investing in investors’ own countries instead.

Initial attempts to invest in their own economies instead of China largely failed. However, later efforts to undermine China have been more successful, notably ‘friend-shoring’, which urges companies to invest in politically allied or friendly countries instead.

With more economic stagnation, geopolitical strategic considerations and weaponisation of economic policies, cooperation and institutions, fewer resources are available for growth, equity and sustainability. Thus, the new geopolitics has jeopardised prospects for sustainable development.

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Available online here: America First Deepens World Stagnation