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KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Oct 14 2025 (IPS) - Global South cooperation arrangements must evolve to better respond to pressing contemporary and imminent challenges, rather than risk being irrelevant straitjackets stuck in the past.


Southeast Asia

In 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established, initially to address regional tensions following the formation of Malaysia in September 1963.


The creation of Malaysia had led to problems with the Philippines and Indonesia, while Singapore had seceded from the new confederation in August 1965.

ASEAN was not a Cold War creation in the same sense as the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO), one of several regional security arrangements established by the Americans in the early 1950s, the only significant one remaining being NATO.

ASEAN’s most significant initiative was to declare Southeast Asia a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) in 1973, two years before the end of the Indochina wars.

Regional economic cooperation

The region has since seen four major economic initiatives, with the first being the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA).

AFTA was established at the height of the trade liberalisation zeal in the early 1990s. Beyond the initial ‘one-time’ trade liberalisation effects, there has been little actual economic transformation since then.


Trade liberalisation mahaguru Jagdish Bhagwati’s last (2008) book, Termites in the Trading System, saw preferential plurilateral and bilateral FTAs as ‘termites’ undermining the WTO promise of multilateral trade liberalisation.


While seemingly mutually beneficial, such FTAs are akin to termites that surreptitiously erode the foundations of the multilateral trading system by encouraging discrimination, thereby undermining the principle of non-discrimination.


Naive enthusiasm for all FTAs has thus actually undermined multilateralism, also triggering pushback since the late 20th century.


Following the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the G20’s developed economies all raised protectionist barriers, confirming their dubious commitment to free trade.


Meanwhile, US trade policies since the Obama presidency, and especially this year, have made a mockery of the WTO’s commitment to the multilateralism of the 1994 Marrakech Declaration.


Asymmetric financialization

The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis should have served as a wake-up call about the dangers of financialization, but the West dismissed it as simply due to Asian hubris.


Under Managing Director Michel Camdessus, IMF promotion of capital account liberalisation even contravened the Fund’s own Articles of Agreement.


When Japanese Finance Minister Miyazawa and Vice Minister Sakakibara proposed an East Asian financial rescue plan, which was soon killed by then US Treasury Deputy Secretary Larry Summers.


Eventually, the Chiang Mai Initiative was developed by ASEAN+3, including Japan, South Korea, and China as the additional three. Ensuring bilateral swap facilities for financial emergencies have since been multi-lateralised.


ASEAN+3 later led the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), still conceived mainly in terms of regional trade liberalisation.


Non-alignment for our times

Developing relevant institutions and arrangements in our times requires us to pragmatically consider history, rather than abstract, ahistorical principles.


2025 marks several significant anniversaries, most notably the end of World War II in 1945 and the 1955 Bandung Asia-Africa solidarity conference, which anticipated the formation of the non-aligned movement.


The world seems to have lost its commitment to creating the conditions for enduring peace. Despite much rhetoric, the post-World War II commitment to freedom and neutrality in the Global North has largely gone.


The world was deemed unipolar after the end of the Cold War. However, for most, it has been multipolar, with the majority of the Global South remaining non-aligned.


As for peace-making, the US’s NATO allies have increasingly marginalised the United Nations and multilateralism with it. Already, the number of military interventions since the end of the Cold War exceeds those of that era.


While ASEAN cannot realistically lead international peace-making, it can be a much stronger voice for multilateralism, peace, freedom, neutrality, development, and international cooperation.


East Asian potential

The world economy is now stagnating due to Western policies. Hence, ASEAN+3 has become more relevant.


Just before President Trump made his April 2nd Liberation Day unilateral tariffs announcement, the governments of Japan, China, and South Korea met in late March without ASEAN to coordinate responses despite their long history of tensions.


ASEAN risks becoming increasingly irrelevant, due to the limited progress since the Chiang Mai Agreement a quarter of a century ago. Worse, ASEAN’s regional leadership has rarely gone beyond trade liberalisation, now sadly irrelevant in ‘post-normal’ times.


Rather than risk growing irrelevance, regional cooperation needs to rise to contemporary challenges. Working closely with partners accounting for two-fifths of the world economy, ASEAN countries only stand to gain from broader regional cooperation.


President Trump’s ‘shock and awe’ tariffs and Mar-a-Lago ambitions clearly signal that ‘business as usual’ is over, and Washington intends to remake the world. Will East Asia rise to this challenge of our times?



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Admin's note: This is a corrected version of the article, which originally appeared on IPS on 29 July here.



KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Jul 29 2025 (IPS) - US President Trump has successfully used tariff threats to achieve economic, political and even personal goals. These threats, reminiscent of colonialism, have secured submission and concessions.


Indonesian template?

After hearing the 2024 US election results, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto respectfully stood up in his Jakarta office to call to congratulate the winner.


Trump bragged about his tariff offer to Indonesia in mid-July 2025, profusely flattering its president. After initially hesitating, former General Prabowo agreed to join BRICS despite Trump’s clear disapproval.


“I spoke to their really great president, very popular, very strong, smart. And we made the deal. We will pay no tariffs … they are giving us access to Indonesia … the other part is they are going to pay 19% and we are going to pay nothing.”


An Indian commentator noted, “Those words say it all. This deal is clearly one-sided, and it should bother the whole world.” Americans, not Indonesians, will pay tariffs on imports from Indonesia.


The US is Indonesia’s second-largest export market, importing apparel, palm oil, footwear, and cosmetics. Initially, Trump had threatened a 32% tariff on such imports.


This has been reduced to 19%, still almost four times more than last year! In 2024, Indonesian exports to the US were taxed at 5% on average. The Indonesian president has not complained but instead seemed relieved.


Indonesia will lose not only exports, but also growth and jobs. As Trump loves to brag, he added insult to injury as he could not resist reiterating: “They will pay 19%, and we will pay nothing.”


Guaranteed sales

Indonesia will also buy $15 billion of US oil and gas, $4.5 billion of farm produce, and 50 Boeing jets. But the 2019 Lion Air plane tragedy, which the US plane manufacturer quickly blamed on Indonesian pilots, is still alive in the national memory.


Boeing’s reputation worldwide has not recovered from the investigation into the Nairobi air crash involving the same plane model, which led to its grounding.


Indonesia is among the US’s top 25 trade partners. The deal secures American access to the Indonesian market, allowing US goods to be sold tariff-free.


Last year, Indonesia shipped $28 billion worth of goods to the US. Higher tariffs are now expected to cut Indonesian exports by a quarter, GDP growth by 0.3%, and many jobs!


Other Southeast Asian lessons?

The Philippines’ Marcos II government is the most pro-US in Southeast (SE) Asia, hosting 11 American military bases.

Yet it was the only one without a US tariff offer before Secretary of State Rubio’s SE Asian visit earlier this month. The Philippines has since been offered a new US trade deal with the same 19% tariff rate despite its loyalty to Washington.


Loyal long-term support for the US, 11 military bases and serving as an additional ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ just south of Taiwan did not secure a better trade deal for the other archipelagic nation in SE Asia.


Trump wants trade deals even more favourable to the US than existing ones. With deadlines passing, the US is expected to announce more trade deals.


The tariff threats have been more effective for Trump, thanks to decades of trade liberalisation forced on the Global South, undermining earlier import-substituting industrialisation and food security measures.


Washington has already revised earlier demands, sometimes not just once, but typically to the chagrin of US trade partners. Vietnam’s Communist Party leader was initially thought to have negotiated a better deal than other SE Asian governments.


Lessons for others?

Will the US offer to Indonesia become a template for others? Or even for countries of comparable significance in the world economy? Nobody knows Trump’s strategy, let alone how it may still change.


Perhaps it begins with the threat of high tariffs, shock and awe. Then, a less painful deal is offered, dressed up as a concession.


This may be worse than the status quo ante, but it still seems preferable to the original threat. Nations will also be required to buy US goods that may not be needed or offer the best value for money.


Thus, US offers to SE Asia are being studied worldwide for lessons on better negotiating with Washington. Meanwhile, the US refuses to negotiate collectively except with the European Union.


All over the world, policymakers will continue to debate Trump’s tariff war strategy after Monday’s agreement in Scotland, which included a 15% baseline tariff on most EU exports to the US.


The US-EU deal makes clear the West, including Europe, has never really been committed to a rules-based international order, including multilateral trade liberalisation.


As American buyers pay the tariffs, imported goods become more expensive. US trading partners will lose exports, related growth and jobs. This will mean less expansion, employment and exports worldwide, deepening stagnation.


Meanwhile, most SE Asian governments believe they have little choice but to continue negotiating with the US, which is driving them to others willing to engage them on more favourable, if not fairer, terms.


Related IPS Articles

·                   Trump Undresses Rival Trade Myths

·                   Trump Accord Sows Discord in US Empire

·                   Trump’s ‘Shock and Awe’ Tariffs

·                   Weaponizing Free Trade Agreements

·                   Trade, Currency War Weapons Double-Edged

·                   What’s different about Trump’s tariffs?

·                   Trump’s Trade War in Perspective




 
 

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Jun 3 2025 (IPS) - With two-fifths of the world economy, East Asia can inspire others by creatively responding to the US President’s tariff challenge by promoting fair, dynamic and peaceful regional cooperation.


No winners in economic war

Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2nd poses a common challenge that everyone needs to take seriously. Dismissing it as crazy or stupid for rejecting conventional policy wisdom is useless.


Politics and economics have been said to be war by other means. This old insight helps make sense of our times. His announcement emphasised it is about world domination, not just tariffs.


His first shot was arguably fired when Canada arrested Huawei’s founder’s daughter at the behest of the first Trump administration. Others suggest different starting points.

Obama announced the US ‘pivot to Asia’ to contain China. The Nobel Peace Laureate also undermined the multilateral World Trade Organization (WTO)’s ability to settle disputes by blocking arbitration panel appointments.

Trump’s approach is termed transactional. It presumes ‘zero-sum games’ and ignores cooperative ‘win-win’ solutions. Its implications mean we live in perilous times.

His penchant for ‘shock and awe’ is well-known. As if demanding instant gratification, Trump seems uninterested in the medium-term, let alone the long-term.

He insists on bilateral one-on-one transactions – weakening ‘the other’ by refusing collective bargaining. He rejects plurilateral and other collective arrangements but embraces cooperation to share costs. China is different but exceptionally so.


ASEAN

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) did not include all in the region when it was formed in 1967.

Malaysia had recently had conflicts with all other founding members. Indonesia and the Philippines both opposed the new British-sponsored Malaysian confederation established in 1963, and in 1965, Singapore seceded from it.


Like the European Union, ASEAN helped resolve recent conflicts. But ASEAN soon got its act together, even before the Vietnam, Cambodian and Laotian wars ended in 1975.


In 1973, ASEAN leaders agreed that Southeast Asia should become a zone of peace, freedom, and neutrality (ZOPFAN). But its progress has been mixed.


The Philippines removed all US military bases before the end of the 20th century, but now has eleven, with four new ones in the north, facing Taiwan.


ZOPFAN is especially relevant now as several Global North powers have a military presence in the South China Sea. Worse, several Asian leaders have made generous concessions to ‘circumvent’ personal legal ‘problems’ with US authorities.


The recent ASEAN summit will be followed by a second one later in 2025. Two ASEAN precedents, established in response to earlier predicaments, remain relevant.


Bandung

The 1955 Bandung conference of Asian and African leaders of newly emerging nations, which led to the birth of the Non-Aligned Movement, remains relevant.


Europe recently celebrated the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. Now rejecting peaceful coexistence with its erstwhile liberator, Europe insists on fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.


Military interventions after the first Cold War now exceed the number during it! Despite its rhetoric, the Global North seems uninterested in freedom and neutrality.


Western pundits deemed the world unipolar after the 1980s. However, many now see it as multipolar, with most in the Global South preferring not to be aligned with any particular world power.


Major Western powers have increasingly marginalised the UN, undermining its capacity for peacemaking. Few in the West, especially in NATO, remain seriously committed to the UN Charter despite giving much lip service.


But realistically, ASEAN cannot really lead international peacemaking. It can only be a pro-active, pro-UN voice of reason for peace, freedom, neutrality, development and international cooperation.


East Asia

Meanwhile, the world economy is stagnating, mainly due to Western policies since 2008. ASEAN+3 (including Japan, South Korea, and China) is especially relevant now with its Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).


The earlier ASEAN+3 Chiang Mai Agreement responded to the 1997-98 Asian financial crises. After years of Northeast Asian encouragement, ASEAN nations agreed to move from bilateral to multilateral swap arrangements.

Meanwhile, the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has progressed little since its creation over three decades ago.


More recently, the governments of Japan, China, and South Korea met without ASEAN in late March to prepare for Trump’s tariffs.


Sadly, key ASEAN leaders can hardly envision regional economic cooperation beyond yet another free trade agreement.

Trump has declared he wants to remake and rule the world to make America great again. His tariffs and Mar-a-Lago proposals should be seen as long overdue wake-up calls that ‘business as usual’ is over.


Will East Asia rise to the challenge and go beyond defensive actions to offer an alternative for the region’s economies and people, if not beyond?


The UN-led multilateral system still largely serves the US, but not enough for Trump. Thus, the US still invokes multilateral language self-servingly, e.g., it claims its unilateral tariffs are ‘reciprocal’.


Hence, despite his blatant contempt for them, Trump is unlikely to withdraw from all multilateral organisations and arrangements, especially those which serve him well.


Related IPS Articles


Available online here: Can East Asia Show the Way?

 
 

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About Jomo

Jomo Kwame Sundaram is Research Adviser, Khazanah Research Institute, Fellow, Academy of Science, Malaysia, and Emeritus Professor, University of Malaya. Previously, he was UN Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, Assistant Director General, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Founder-Chair, International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) and President, Malaysian Social Science Association. 

In The Media

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